One Year of Stock Market Predictions
Do I make better predictions than Jim Cramer and Cathie Wood?
It has been one year since the first episode of the CMQ Investing podcast was released.
Throughout our first 67 episodes, I’ve made three predictions about the performance of individual stocks. I try not to make predictions about the future often, but when I do, I make them confidently.
I think you can predict the future in a few places best if you understand a few basic ideas that come from a good general education. —Charlie Munger
Take a look at the expectations vs. the outcomes below:
I said this about Robinhood on August 4, 2021:
I wouldn't touch this stock with a ten-foot pole. My thesis is simple. A business that does not do right by its customers will never succeed long-term. And as a long-term investor, I only want to invest money into companies that have a bright future, and I would never invest money into a company that actually harms their customers.
I said this about Rivian on November 15, 2021:
I think [Rivian’s valuation] is crazy. I know people who have bought into that stock. I think it's a terrible idea personally, because if a company doesn't make any money, the potential risk you're taking on is huge… When you're buying a stock, the risk you're taking on if the company doesn't even make money as is—I mean, that's a huge gamble… an overconfident version of me would think that I knew something or had some foresight into the future of the EV market that would allow me to or profit from buying shares of Rivian at this current stage. I just think it's a bad idea. And I think it's one of those decisions that you would end up looking back on and regretting doing.
I said this about Coinbase on December 27, 2021:
Most of their money comes from transaction fees. And the only way you get transaction fees is that people are buying and selling cryptocurrencies. So I can't predict the macro here, no one can—but if for some reason people are less inclined to buy and sell crypto, what does that do to the net revenue of Coinbase? That crushes it. Because that's what it depends on. After 10 minutes of reading the Coinbase S-1 we have enough information here to make an informed decision [to not buy the stock]... just from looking at the business model. That business model is not strong enough for me. I'm investing in future cash flows, and [this is a] business whose revenue is too dependent on something that could slow down.
Listen to these episodes 👇
Robinhood (HOOD) - Hot Stock or Future Flop? [Apple Podcasts] [Spotify]
CMQ Live - Real Estate Investing, Rivian IPO, My Crypto Allocation, Solana, the Metaverse & More [Apple Podcasts] [Spotify]
A 10-Minute Analysis of Coinbase ($COIN) Stock [Apple Podcasts] [Spotify]
Should I make more posts like this? 🤔
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I’d say, from the 8 episodes I’ve heard, that you beat most market participants; pro & amateur alike. Although, as a crypto investor, with Coinbase around $175, I started buying in. I personally stake crypto on 5 platforms. Coinbase has the lowest barrier to entry for beginners and is the only reputable CEX where you can earn free crypto just from learning about said crypto. Pretty sweet t see my $15 of free crypto be worth $45 today fees are crazy and staking fees are low, so it’s definitely a beginners niche, but with so much mainstream adoption yet to come, I’ll buy in this cheap. Totally against my usually long-term fundamental, dividend paying, blab lie based approach. But I think to get this potential growth at this valuation, I’m in. Wouldn’t blame ANYone for passing tho. As a crypto enthusiast, I’m unique. I won’t touch Bitcoin or any other currency. I buy crypto with applications in IoT, gaming, & staking/liquidity pool mining/lending applications that are already doing things. I don’t understand, and therefore won’t invest, in all things “currency” in the crypto world. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, other 20 Bitcoin forks, etc.