That’s what makes the current situation so tricky. Are the fundamentals the same under tariffs? Are there tariffs even for real, or just a bargaining chip? I’m sure the fundamentals will remain for some businesses, but others will change drastically. I’d be curious to hear your thinking on this. What industries do you think are fundamentally the same under tariffs and which will change dramatically?
You’re right—this is what makes the current situation tricky.
Tariffs aren’t just economic policy; they’re sometimes political theater. But even as a bargaining chip, they shift incentives and change how companies compete.
While I don’t claim to be a policy insider, I pay close attention to business fundamentals. If tariffs stay in play, here’s the big-picture split:
Minimal impact: Asset-light, domestically focused businesses—think software, digital services, financials. These companies don’t rely heavily on physical goods crossing borders.
High impact: Asset-heavy, import-dependent sectors like autos, hardware, and industrials. Tariffs hit them where it hurts—materials, components, or final assembly.
Tariffs don’t just raise costs. They force a strategic overhaul. Some businesses can pass those costs along. Others? They lose margin, competitiveness—or both.
That’s what makes the current situation so tricky. Are the fundamentals the same under tariffs? Are there tariffs even for real, or just a bargaining chip? I’m sure the fundamentals will remain for some businesses, but others will change drastically. I’d be curious to hear your thinking on this. What industries do you think are fundamentally the same under tariffs and which will change dramatically?
Hey Nick — great question.
You’re right—this is what makes the current situation tricky.
Tariffs aren’t just economic policy; they’re sometimes political theater. But even as a bargaining chip, they shift incentives and change how companies compete.
While I don’t claim to be a policy insider, I pay close attention to business fundamentals. If tariffs stay in play, here’s the big-picture split:
Minimal impact: Asset-light, domestically focused businesses—think software, digital services, financials. These companies don’t rely heavily on physical goods crossing borders.
High impact: Asset-heavy, import-dependent sectors like autos, hardware, and industrials. Tariffs hit them where it hurts—materials, components, or final assembly.
Tariffs don’t just raise costs. They force a strategic overhaul. Some businesses can pass those costs along. Others? They lose margin, competitiveness—or both.
That’s where things start to break.